Sport Awards 2025: All Sport of the 12 months front-runners and predictions

The eleventh Sport Awards, scheduled for Dec. 11, are all of a sudden large open. Grand Theft Auto 6which was beforehand anticipated to dominate the Awards this yr, has been delayed into 2026. That may make for a a lot much less predictable Sport of the 12 months competitors on the main awards ceremony for the sport trade — the Oscars of gaming, because it had been.

The Sport Awards’ voting physique consists of a variety of worldwide video games media (Polygon included), with a ten% contribution from fan voting. There are numerous sturdy indicators for what’s going to carry out nicely within the Sport of the 12 months class. A excessive Metacritic ranking (ideally over 90) is a should; role-playing video games and action-adventures are strongly favored, as are video games with sturdy narrative parts; indie and multiplayer video games wrestle tougher for recognition than AAA single-player adventures. We used these metrics to appropriately predict final yr’s winner, Astro Bot. (We additionally bought 4 of the six nominees proper, and appropriately known as 14 different classes.)

Beneath, you’ll discover our predictions for the almost certainly nominees, of which there are six annually, for Sport of the 12 months 2025. Not like the movie trade, the place most titles are identified portions nicely upfront, you by no means actually know what sort of affect a online game may have, or how good it will likely be, till it’s out. With that in thoughts, this checklist solely consists of video games which are already out. We’ll replace these rankings all year long as new video games are launched. We’ll additionally checklist some doubtless upcoming contenders and among the 2025 GOTY race’s darkish horses, too.

Replace (July 1): Loss of life Stranding 2: On the Seashore emerges as a robust contender and certain nominee — maybe essentially the most believable menace to Clear obscure: Expedition 33 thus far. Its arrival pushes Monster Hunter Wilds out of the the highest six; Capcom’s sport has fizzled not too long ago, and its neighborhood is more and more disgruntled. The Alters joins the race as an attention-grabbing darkish horse.

1. Clear obscure: Expedition 33

Why it may win: A critically acclaimed role-playing sport, sturdy on storytelling and efficiency, thematically resonant but in addition enjoyable, with slick manufacturing values and glossy graphics — that is the stuff Sport of the 12 months winners are made from. It’s an astonishing achievement from the comparatively small debut workforce at Sandfall Interactive, which solely provides to its cachet. The considerably related Metaphor: refantication was very sturdy in 2024. Expedition 33 is trying onerous to beat.

Weaknesses: Whereas it’s a minor hit, sufficient folks must play Expedition 33 — particularly among the many vital neighborhood — to maintain it within the dialog for greater than six months. Sport Move will assist, however is it actually large enough to win?

Learn Polygon’s Clear obscure: Expedition 33 assessment right here.

2. Loss of life Stranding 2: On the Seashore

Why it may win: Hideo Kojima’s sequel to his divisive, prophetic 2019 sci-fi epic about mountaineering throughout the barren wasteland between bunkers of civilization is each grander and extra palatable than the unique. A technically astounding, absorbing, formidable dad sport, with rave critiques, printed by Sony… it’s bought all of the options of a significant GOTY contender, and it comes from essentially the most well-known online game auteur nonetheless working.

Weaknesses: Subsequent to Clear’s underdog story, Loss of life Stranding 2 feels just like the institution alternative, regardless of its many oddities. And the closeness between Kojima and Keighley (who had a cameo within the first sport) may make some jury members really feel queasy about voting for it.

Learn Polygon’s Loss of life Stranding 2 impressions right here.

Why it may win: Important consensus remains to be essentially the most dependable indicator of success at The Sport Awards, and with a ranking over 90 on each Metacritic and OpenCritic, Hazelight’s co-op journey is a transparent front-runner on this regard. It’s bought a legacy benefit, too: Hazelight’s earlier sport, It Takes Twogained GOTY in 2021, and since then has amassed a huge common following. As a story-led action-adventure, Cut up Fiction additionally belongs to a style that the Sport Awards jury has been identified to favor previously.

Weaknesses: Maybe It Takes Two’s win will rely in opposition to it if jury members are searching for one thing totally different to reward. Additionally, whereas It Takes Two’s intensely private story about divorce was unquestionably a energy, Cut up Fiction has been praised extra for its design than its summary and overworked story of writers adrift in digital actuality.

Learn Polygon’s Cut up Fiction assessment right here.

Why it may win: Indie video games have a troublesome time breaking by means of into the primary Sport of the 12 months competitors at The Sport Awards, however there’s typically room for one, and Blue Prince has bought every thing going for it. It has been met with overwhelming vital acclaim, with a 92 Metascore. Everybody within the vital/voter neighborhood appears to be taking part in it. And its deep thriller, difficult puzzles, and intriguing narrative parts ought to hold the dialog going round it.

Weaknesses: Blue Prince is sort of difficult and inscrutable by the requirements of a typical Sport Awards GOTY decide. Earlier indie nominees like Stray and Inside are positively extra accessible and character-driven, whereas final yr’s equally mysterious Animal Effectively didn’t make the reduce. Additionally, if one other nice indie sport comes alongside this yr — Hades 2 for instance — Blue Prince must combat it for the one nomination that the indie gaming neighborhood appears to be allowed.

Learn Polygon’s Blue Prince assessment right here.

5. Kingdom Come: Deliverance 2

Why it may win: This may very well be this yr’s Black Fantasy: Wukong: an formidable hit sport from a developer working exterior the gaming institution, delivering on core players’ ardent need for large solo adventures made with out compromise. Deliverance 2 is a practical medieval RPG with sturdy storytelling, and critics actually favored it (its Metascore is 88). One other related sport is perhaps the 2015 GOTY winner, The Witcher 3. That is proper in The Sport Awards’ candy spot.

Weaknesses: Black Fantasy: Wukong didn’t win GOTY — a lot to its producer’s chagrin. Similar to Black Fantasy’s Sport Science, Kingdom Come developer Warhorse is taken into account politically radioactive by some, after founder Daniel Vávra made pro-Gamergate feedback in 2015. Maybe extra to the purpose, the sport is a difficult time sink that isn’t that broadly performed amongst journalists and jurors, regardless of respectable gross sales.

Learn Polygon’s Kingdom Come: Deliverance 2 assessment right here.

6. Indiana Jones and the Nice Circle

Why it may win: It solely missed the deadline for the 2024 awards by per week or two, however MachineGames’ tackle the indelible film hero was swiftly acclaimed for all of the issues the jury likes to see: sturdy, performance-led storytelling, polished tech, excessive manufacturing values, a great mixture of motion and extra cerebral play, and Troy Baker. It might virtually actually have been nominated for a GOTY 2024, and April’s PlayStation 5 launch will assist hold Nice Circle within the dialog all the best way up till the 2025 nomination course of begins.

Weaknesses: PS5 launch however, 12 months is an awfully very long time to remain related within the race. The Sport Awards don’t usually reward licensed video games. And the mid-80s Metacritic and OpenCritic scores are good, however point out the vital consensus on this sport is a bit of softer than it first appeared.

Learn Polygon’s Indiana Jones and the Nice Circle assessment right here.

Avowed: Obsidian Video games’ conventional fantasy RPG had a barely delicate vital reception however a protracted tail and powerful phrase of mouth, as gamers discovered its reliable, old style qualities powerful to show away from. With sturdy writing in a well-liked style, it’s the definition of a Sport Awards darkish horse.

Murderer’s Creed Shadows: Ubisoft’s newest was the closest factor to a conventional AAA contender within the early a part of the yr, and there was aid all spherical at its evident high quality. However it doesn’t appear to be thrilling gamers or critics in the long run.

Religious: This Ecuadorian slice-of-life indie sport about soccer and childhood is a minor vital sensation, with raves from some key reviewers. However it’ll want some virality to develop its cultural footprint sufficient to compete, and even then it appears unlikely to get previous indie favourite Blue Prince.

Monster Hunter Wilds: Capcom’s newest within the monster-hunting RPG collection launched to acclaim and big gross sales early within the yr, making it an early favourite. However time (and its neighborhood) haven’t been very variety, and many individuals would now price it behind 2018’s World.

The Alters: 11 Bit Studios’ fascinating, uncomfortable sport about creating clones of your self to outlive an inhospitable planet doesn’t have unanimous vital backing, but it surely’s actually bought folks speaking, which is a superb asset within the GOTY race.

Metroid Prime 4: Past: Retro Studios’ very long-awaited return to the first-person sci-fi adventures of Samus will not be Nintendo’s solely GOTY contender within the Swap 2’s launch yr — but it surely is perhaps the likeliest. The Metroid Prime sub-series is adored by critics, and has by no means dropped under 90 on Metacritic, whereas Metroid Dread scored a GOTY nomination in 2021.

Hades 2: Assuming it emerges from early entry this yr, Supergiant’s roguelike sequel will doubtless be main the indie contenders for the yr — out to avenge the unique sport’s perceived snub on the 2020 awards. (It’s eligible regardless, however the jury prefers to not nominate early entry video games.)

Keeper: We all know subsequent to nothing about Double Superb’s subsequent sport, due in October; it’s a couple of sentient lighthouse with a chicken buddy and appears to don’t have any dialogue. However primarily based purely on art work and vibes (plus Psychonauts 2’s nomination) it looks like a possible contender.

Ghost of Yōtei: No writer has a greater report on the Sport Awards than Sony, and apart from Loss of life Stranding 2its different contender this yr is that this open-world samurai journey — one other sequel to a sport (Ghost of Tsushima) whose popularity has solely grown over time. If nothing else, this extra rarefied, bespoke-feeling launch will edge out the equally themed Murderer’s Creed Shadows.

Donkey Kong Bananza: Of Nintendo’s two massive Swap 2 launch titles, Bananza is the likelier to attain a GOTY nomination. Mario Kart Worldas a racing sport, has no likelihood. The Sport Awards have traditionally not been that sort to family-oriented platformers both, however Astro Bot’s 2024 win appeared to vary that, which matches in Donkey Kong’s favor — so long as the sport can face up to the comparability.